This blog post will provide our first forecast of reported spending for 2013.
This forecast is based on:
- Reviewing the trends in reported spending over the past 5 years
- Consideration of the potential impact of the current tax increases on both company investment in advertising as well as consumer discretionary spending
- The introduction and advancements in new media opportunities
For 2013, we anticipate total spending across all media to reach $165 billion. This represents an increase of 3%, or $5 billion, versus 2012.
In 2012, due to the impact of the Olympics as well as the political campaigns, total spending reached $160 billion, an increase of $6.5 billion, or slightly more than 4% when compared to 2011.
Throughout 2013, TargetCast will continue to monitor and report on significant changes in advertising activity and update our projections. Our next report will be issued once the first half of 2013 spending data becomes available.
Forecast of spending trends for the major media:
Total television (national and local)
Spending will continue to increase and remain the dominant medium for advertisers. In total, advertising on linear television will increase to 46% of all reported expenditures. For national television, TargetCast anticipates advertising to reach $57 billion (+5%) and represent 34% of all spending. The increase investment forecast is based on increases in TV viewership and market mix modeling studies that continue to show strong ROI for TV. For local television, TargetCast forecasts local television spend to increase 5% to $19 billion, and represent 12% of total spending. The increased spend in local television is based upon increased knowledge of local sales data and advertisers desire to apply the findings.
Digital (all forms)
Digital is forecast to represent the largest YOY increase with growth of almost 18%. 2013 will witness continued increased investment in digital channels, behind increased and improved advertising opportunities and continued advertiser interest, especially in the areas of online video and mobile. TargetCast forecasts 2013 combined digital advertising to reach close to $40 billion (+15% vs. year ago), garnering almost 25% of all reported advertising spending.
Print – (consumer magazines and newspapers
In 2013 print media will continue to lose advertising dollars – an important part of the hardcopy revenue stream. This decline will result from publishers discontinuing magazines that are not meeting revenue expectations and consolidation of titles, as well as the influence of digital opportunities for immediate information. Following recent declines, we predict consumer magazines and newspaper advertising dollars to decrease by 10% respectively. The medium will represent 20% of all advertising dollars ($34 billion).
Spanish Language Media (National Television and Print)
In 2013 Spanish media will continue to garner increased dollars as advertisers recognize the growth of the Hispanic population and its importance for their products. TargetCast forecasts that Spanish language television will increase by 10% to $5 billion. However, Spanish language media will garner only 3% of total spending as the media opportunities to reach the Hispanic population are fewer in comparison to the general market.
Radio – (national and local)
We anticipated no change in radio spend as a percent of total media for 2013; total reported radio spending is anticipated at $3 billion (2%).